Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Note from Underground

The international political scene as it relates to Syria can only be described as Dickensian, Kafkaesque and Orwellian, can only be accurately captured and narrated by Dostoyevski, and can only be handled by leaders with a deep sense of moral commitment and gumption.

The by now all but certain assassination of high level security officials in Damascus on Sunday continues to send shockwaves throughout the country, with major military operations now taking place in provinces near and far, including a number of Damascene suburbs as well as several towns and villages in the provinces of Daraa, Idlib, Hama, Aleppo, Homs and Deir Ezzor. Tensions in Damascus City are at an all-time high and heavy security presence is reported in many key neighborhoods and squares.

While we still cannot confirm the identity of those who were killed, though all reports by now insist that Assad's brother-in-law and the top engineer of the 15-months old crackdown is indeed among the dead, the event seems to have been significant enough to warrant major escalation on all fronts by Assad's loyal security forces in an attempt to deflect attention, exact revenge and keep troops morale from faltering. As such, the carnage that will take place over the next few days will be considerable, and the international community will be hard pressed to act, but will likely not do so. Members of the Syrian resistance will have to scramble to provide for their own protection, as usual, which might increase reliance on more radical elements who continue to have better access to funds and equipment. The unravelling of Syria will continue. And the spillover effect will get worse.

Links

Syrian rebels cling to bullets and hope

NATO's blind spot on intervention in Syria

The Syria Paradox

America and Syria's dead man walking